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AI Markets

Live narrative intelligence terminal — tracking political signals, market pricing, and real-time trade opportunities
Narrative Core

Cross-border strike footage deepens regional war-risk pricing

Coverage window: Apr 03 8:00 PM ET → Apr 03 9:00 PM ET

This hour’s clearest narrative shift is from debate over a single aircraft loss toward a wider picture of active cross-border exchanges and possible broadening of the battlespace. Posts citing Iranian strikes into the Negev and nighttime airstrikes near Abadan are unverified in this dataset, but together they reinforce a fast-spreading perception that the conflict is no longer being framed mainly around one downed jet or one rescue mission. That matters because investor and policy attention tends to move quickly from tactical incidents to durability, escalation ladders, and infrastructure exposure. A separate report claiming another fighter jet was downed over Tehran remains highly uncertain and appears to rely on Iranian state-linked sourcing, so it should be treated cautiously. Alongside the battlefield narrative, political and media attention is also rotating toward cyber vulnerability after the FBI described a data breach as a “major incident,” adding a domestic risk thread to an already volatile international picture. The broad takeaway is not confirmed strategic transformation, but a clear intensification in how the story is being packaged: regionalized military action, contested information, and rising sensitivity to second-order disruptions.
Powered by AI narrative intelligence. We ingest live global news, generate a real-time briefing, and score prediction markets by narrative alignment, expected edge, and market strength.
Terminal Snapshot
Shift Level
Moderate Shift
Score: 3
Action Bias
Review positions
Narrative positioning
Best Bets
12
High conviction setups
Markets on Board
37
Filtered markets shown
Narrative Shift Detector
Dropped topics: oil, russia
Moderate Shift
Review positions
Shift score: 3
Daily trading plan
Open positions at 7 AM · Close at 7 PM

Best Bets for the Day

AI-identified opportunities where market pricing diverges from real-time narrative and momentum.

Best Bet YES Politics

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YES
24
NO
76
EDGE
0.09
SCORE
19
Volume
18,526,856
Liquidity
784,486
Best Bet YES Other

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YES
12
NO
88
EDGE
0.09
SCORE
19
Volume
9,805,001
Liquidity
1,104,002
Best Bet YES World

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

YES
10
NO
90
EDGE
0.09
SCORE
17
Volume
14,672,060
Liquidity
536,279
Best Bet YES Politics

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES
6
NO
94
EDGE
0.09
SCORE
17
Volume
10,561,505
Liquidity
505,835
Best Bet YES World

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

YES
26
NO
74
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
15
Volume
13,070,477
Liquidity
432,406
Best Bet YES World

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

YES
30
NO
70
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
15
Volume
12,439,734
Liquidity
489,540
Best Bet YES Politics

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES
18
NO
82
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
15
Volume
9,652,956
Liquidity
763,813
Best Bet YES Other

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

YES
88
NO
12
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
15
Volume
8,224,240
Liquidity
691,545
Best Bet YES Politics

Trump out as President before 2027?

YES
14
NO
86
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
15
Volume
5,779,936
Liquidity
686,480
Best Bet YES Politics

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YES
8
NO
92
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
13
Volume
7,757,226
Liquidity
525,671
Best Bet YES Other

Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?

YES
8
NO
92
EDGE
0.07
SCORE
13
Volume
3,251,348
Liquidity
736,004
Best Bet YES Politics

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

YES
37
NO
63
EDGE
0.05
SCORE
13
Volume
9,330,359
Liquidity
341,815

All Bets Board

Default view: Politics markets.
Full market board sorted by signal strength.
MARKET CATEGORY SCORE STATUS YES NO EDGE LIQUIDITY VOLUME OPEN
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? World 17 Best Bet YES 10 90 0.09 536,279 14,672,060 Open
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? World 15 Best Bet YES 26 74 0.07 432,406 13,070,477 Open
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? World 15 Best Bet YES 30 70 0.07 489,540 12,439,734 Open
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? World 13 Best Bet YES 52 48 0.05 146,317 2,636,694 Open
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? World 13 Best Bet YES 12 88 0.05 116,333 1,516,503 Open
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? World 10 Watch YES 13 87 0.035 19,862 1,892,980 Open
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? World 10 Watch YES 41 59 0.035 15,849 1,140,386 Open
Iran Nuke before 2027? World 7 Watch YES 8 92 0.03 106,315 474,268 Open
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? World 7 Watch YES 10 90 0.03 120,774 413,293 Open
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? World 6 Avoid 22 78 0.015 46,572 788,302 Open
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? World 6 Avoid 13 87 0.015 12,339 626,342 Open
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? World 6 Avoid 16 84 0.015 56,219 534,880 Open
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? World 6 Avoid 21 79 0.015 38,238 501,378 Open
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? World 6 Avoid 27 73 0.015 15,696 491,392 Open
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? World 6 Avoid 38 62 0.015 54,826 475,379 Open
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? World 6 Avoid 46 55 0.015 48,790 466,575 Open
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? World 6 Avoid 12 88 0.015 16,563 395,909 Open
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 32,146 1,115,748 Open
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 113,005 984,440 Open
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 13,136 584,734 Open
Will Charl Schwartzel win the 2026 Masters tournament? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 113,403 541,711 Open
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 14,632 499,430 Open
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 9,044 375,403 Open
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 31,844 373,309 Open
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? World 0 Avoid 5 95 0 33,513 355,915 Open

Performance

Public paper-trading track record based on opened and closed daily picks.

Closed Trades
0
Completed paper trades
Wins
0
Positive P&L trades
Losses
0
Negative P&L trades
Win Rate
0.0%
Closed trade accuracy
Total P&L
$0.00
Aggregate dollars
Avg Trade
$0.00
Average per closed trade